Neo-Conservative thought on attacking Iran:
In early October, U.S. officials accused Iranian operatives of planning to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States on American soil. Iran denied the charges, but the episode has already managed to increase tensions between Washington and Tehran. Although the Obama administration has not publicly threatened to retaliate with military force, the allegations have underscored the real and growing risk that the two sides could go to war sometime soon — particularly over Iran’s advancing nuclear program.
For several years now, starting long before this episode, American pundits and policymakers have been debating whether the United States should attack Iran and attempt to eliminate its nuclear facilities. Proponents of a strike have argued that the only thing worse than military action against Iran would be an Iran armed with nuclear weapons. Critics, meanwhile, have warned that such a raid would likely fail and, even if it succeeded, would spark a full-fledged war and a global economic crisis. They have urged the United States to rely on nonmilitary options, such as diplomacy, sanctions, and covert operations, to prevent Iran from acquiring a bomb. Fearing the costs of a bombing campaign, most critics maintain that if these other tactics fail to impede Tehran’s progress, the United States should simply learn to live with a nuclear Iran.
But skeptics of military action fail to appreciate the true danger that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose to U.S. interests in the Middle East and beyond. And their grim forecasts assume that the cure would be worse than the disease — that is, that the consequences of a U.S. assault on Iran would be as bad as or worse than those of Iran achieving its nuclear ambitions. But that is a faulty assumption. The truth is that a military strike intended to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, if managed carefully, could spare the region and the world a very real threat and dramatically improve the long-term national security of the United States.
Counter by Liberal Thought
. The US enjoys roundly poor support in the Gulf and more importantly unreliable support among the Russian and Chinese interests on this matter. In this regard, we need only review both Chinese and Russian military statements that they would and have already begun to back Iran with respect to both military aid and support, as well as generous trade and technical assistance in industrial matters.
2. Mr. Kroenig makes a point to mention that the United States would presumably conduct some “precision bombing” (an oxymoron if ever there was one), and then de-escalate the situation.
This is a canard for a variety of reasons, so let’s walk through – just a few of the downsides of such infantile thinking.
The Iranian government in light of the Ossirak attacks, in the 1980′s specifically spread their nuclear development program across dozens if not hundreds of sites, most if not all of which would have to be destroyed in large measure. With campuses, facilities and materials spread across a nation the size of Alaska, many of which are in large well defended metropolitan areas, the falsehood of this statement is obvious.
Presuming for a moment a US/Israeli attack were launched, with the US then seeking a peace with “terms”, what incentive could possibly induce Iran to accept. Our two nations would formally be at war, and rest assured if we consider any action taken by Iranian intelligence / non-state actors, as problematic before-hand – imagine what an enraged / nationalistically motivated set of terrorists / special agents , with generous state funding would be enticed to do. It puts every nightmare terrorist scenario on the table in ways we can scarcely conceive.
The US and Israel and the western world at large have an embarrassment of riches from the perspective of a terrorist looking to inflict economic catastrophe.
To return to the overall argument of consequences however,
Let’s first remember, after all , this is not just a military engagement, oil and gas prices would immediately skyrocket, we enjoy 100 dollar a barrel gasoline, currently, (as preposterous as that will seem to older readers who remember fondly 30 dollar per barrel prices), where is the limit if the Straight of Hormuz becomes an open battlefield?
What happens to the planetary economy when the the ports of Juaymah like in ruins and 50 percent of the planetary supply is taken offline for months or years?
How many years or perhaps even decades before our economy would recover from 200 or 300 dollar per barrel gasoline? Are US industries or consumers sufficiently able to absorb or support 10-12 dollar gasoline prices, for a very long period of time?
How does this impact things like crop yields where a minor escalation of 20 dollars per barrel caused food riots in China, India and of course throughout the Muslim world, as food prices rose in league with energy used to produce that food?
What happens to the US consumer economy when suddenly our distribution, food production and energy costs double or triple.
Beyond the tacit military support of Iran, what geo-strategic impact would such a manifestly reckless attack have when a China or Russia, India or even Europe evaluate the prospect of cost-induced mass food and fuel shortages, how will these nations respond to the prospect of starvation due to such a significant disruption to the food production network?
Might they feel compelled to intervene to restrain our adventurism in some way?
The ramifications of even a temporary embargo or sanction against the United States by either these nations or some coordinated action to restrain our efforts, by the Arab League would shut down the US economy and make the 1970′s embargo’s look like a picnic by comparison.
Is the US , in any serious way able to say that the Pakistani government or the more sympathetic elements of the ISI have not already executed or conducted some sort of Pan-Muslim nuclear exchange akin to the US/UK Lend-Lease program of the 1930′s and 40′s ,perhaps a “gift” the Iranian regime a few nuclear warheads to tide them over until their domestic production is adequate?
Which opens a whole series of questions as to whether Iran already HAS a nuclear defense capacity?
What if have and they use it?
Destroying Saudi oil delivery capacity – or launching such a device as an EMP over the western Levant, or crippling US forces over the Arabian penninsula, returning Israel and Turkey and Iraq or the north-western 1/3 of Saudi Arabia to the 1850′s in rapid fashion.
Not a single person might die in the initial detonation , but rest assured , nations would fall as a result.
There are a whole litany of similar questions, one can ask when you get started along these lines.
So to indulge the neoconservative view that we can have yet again a “clean” war, with no impact is exactly the same pack of fabrications with a new label, only this time the nation involved has a citizenry numbered at nearly 90 MILLION or more than 10 times the size of Israel and nearly 1/3 the population of the US.
Moreover, what exactly is the downside of an Iran with say 1-5 nuclear weapons of a Hiroshima style yield; unfortunately for neoconservatives, the answer is – not very much.
Iran , like every other major nation in the region, from Turkey to Saudi Arabia (which has allegedly sponsored the majority of the Pakistani nuclear program), to Pakistan itself, and a whole host of other nations throughout Southeast Asia have either developed or have the capacity to develop a nuclear weapon.
Israel, far from the defenseless lamb in the wild, thanks to unfailing US support , has a complete nuclear deterrence.
- 40 years of technological / deployment lead on these other nuclear states.
- The most technologically advanced military in the region.
- Israel itself is conservatively estimated to have upwards of 70 Hiroshima style weapons, with an unknown number capable of being launched in minuteman fashion.
- At least 3 submarines specifically designed and deployed as capable of launching “dead-hand” nuclear response – should Israel in fact be “wiped off the map”, the aggressor or aggressors would almost certainly suffer a nuclear response, even in the face of tactical victory on the ground.
- VAST US military support in terms of advanced missile interception technology , from x-ray laser anti-missile systems deemed largely reliable and operational across Israel, to anti-missile/missile systems.
This is to say nothing of an understood military support of the United States itself , should Israel actually come under attack.
So the problem faced by the Israel body politic is really the major problem at hand, shifting from a situation where there is no credible nuclear threat to a situation where nuclear weapons are actively deployed in their sphere of influence.
This places a series of rhetorically and ideologically unpalatable choices before the more conservative/hard-line members of the Israeli military and political establishment, but it does not represent a significant existential threat. Even members of the Israeli government from the head of Mossad itself to various members of the Knesset have publicly recognized this.
The United States – for it’s part has – in stark contrast to the argument has one simple interest – economic and military, a nuclear armed Iran does not necessarily adversely affect any of our interests in the immediate term, nor does it prospectively adversely affect our interests in the future.
More abhorrent to the neoconservative worldview is the distinct observation that the United States has a variety of economic interests which would benefit from improved relations with the United States, I’m sure Coca-Cola, Corning Glass, Exxon, IBM, Hallburton (which already does some limited business with Iran), Microsoft, Apple or any number of other firms would enjoy the opportunity to engage a marketplace of nearly 100 MILLION new consumers.
This is entirely contrary to the argument made by Mr. Kroenig that an attack against Iran is the “least bad” option, the egregious failure of this author to even cursorily mention these or any other observations to the contrary really shows the utter failure of this argument bear any scrutiny or be of any value.
It is only so in the absence of considering ANY of the plausible military or economic consequences, that such argumentation exists, and I would furthermore implore the editors of Foreign Affairs to give more considered insight to these preposterous neoconservative arguments.
Thank you for your time and consideration on this important matter.
Sincerely ,
Mark Thomson
Princeton, NJ